The original question did not specify a price source or measurement time. This clarification uses the Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD daily closing price for December 31, 2026 (UTC), with a strict threshold above US$150,000. Scheduled resolution is January 1, 2027 at 00:10 UTC, subject to source availability. If the official candle remains unavailable by January 8, 2027 at 00:00 UTC, the market will be cancelled. The existing entry closing time is unchanged.
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Open·Closes: 31 Dec 2026, 20:59 UTC
Will Bitcoin be above $150,000 at the end of 2026?
Market probability· BIL· Price unavailable
How it works
The YES reference price is the best bid/ask midpoint when the spread is at most 0.10 BIL. A wider or one-sided book uses the latest recorded YES trade available in the public tape. Without that data, no percentage is shown. NO is the complement in this binary summary. All funding methods use the same BIL order book. This is not your execution price, total BIL distribution or an outcome guarantee.
Participant confidence
About this market
Predict whether Bitcoin's price on December 31, 2026 will be above 150,000 US dollars. Photo: Steve Jurvetson / Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 2.0: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/ . Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Casascius_coin.jpg . Displayed in a cropped card frame.
Probability history and movement
No consensus history is available yet for this market.
Why did this move?
- Community
Sep 10, 2026 · 05:41 UTC
Signal changed
Community consensus moved from 65% to 30%.
-35 pp
down
How will this market be resolved?
Criteria
YES if the close field of the Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD 86400-second candle starting December 31, 2026 at 00:00 UTC is strictly greater than 150000 USD. NO if the close is 150000 USD or lower. The candle ends January 1, 2027 at 00:00 UTC; use its last-trade closing price, not the current ticker or another exchange. Scheduled resolution: January 1, 2027 at 00:10 UTC, after the official candle is available. If data is delayed, wait until January 8, 2027 at 00:00 UTC; cancel the market if no official candle for that period is available by then. Entry closes December 31, 2026 at 20:59 UTC.
Official source
Timing
Resolution: 1 Jan 2027, 00:10 UTC
Rule updates
Payout rules
Real BIL settlement — closed beta
Real BIL trading, deposits, withdrawals, fees, custody, and external payouts are not active.
These terms describe an inactive protocol rule. They do not indicate payout readiness, protected customer funds, KYC approval, provider readiness, or legal approval.
Only if all required launch controls are verified and real BIL trading is enabled: After a YES or NO result is confirmed, each winning share pays 1 BIL. Losing shares pay 0 BIL.
If this market is cancelled or cannot be resolved, each held YES or NO share pays 0.50 BIL. This payment is based on the shares you hold at settlement. It can be lower than your purchase cost.
Unfilled orders are cancelled when the market closes or is cancelled. Their unused cash and share reserves are released.
Fees paid on completed trades are not refunded.
Bilinium AI analysis Evidence & drivers
CommunityInsufficient data
30%
Updated
Reliability76%
Confidence0%
Bilinium AIIndependent model
12%
60% confidence
Top forecastersLimited
—
Not enough eligible forecasters yet.
Signal changeFirst analysis
AI Summary
Multiple reputable sources forecast a low probability that Bitcoin's price will exceed $150,000 by the end of 2026. The consensus among recent price predictions indicates a bearish outlook for reaching this price target within the specified timeframe.
YES Drivers
No explicit yes drivers are available yet.
Evidence
Sources (5)
- Bitcoin Price Prediction 2026 Direction: NOcoingecko.com
Bitcoin is unlikely to be above US$150,000 by the end of 2026.
- Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: 2026, 2027–2030 Analysis Direction: NOcoincodex.com
Bitcoin is unlikely to be above US$150,000 by the end of 2026.
- coingecko.com
Bitcoin is unlikely to be above US$150,000 by the end of 2026.
- paribu.com
Bitcoin is unlikely to be above US$150,000 by the end of 2026.
- coindataflow.com
Bitcoin is unlikely to be above US$150,000 by the end of 2026.
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