0 followers

Closed·Closes: 20 Sept 2026, 23:59 UTC

Will Apple's 2026 iPhone sales reach $200 billion?

Market probability· BIL· Price unavailable

How it works

The YES reference price is the best bid/ask midpoint when the spread is at most 0.10 BIL. A wider or one-sided book uses the latest recorded YES trade available in the public tape. Without that data, no percentage is shown. NO is the complement in this binary summary. All funding methods use the same BIL order book. This is not your execution price, total BIL distribution or an outcome guarantee.

Forecasts 0Forecast change· 24h move —· 7d move —

Participant confidence

About this market

iPhone net sales for Apple's fiscal year 2026, not the calendar year. Photo: メイド理世 / Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 2.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/. Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:IPhone_16_(54251031797).jpg. Displayed in a cropped card frame.

Probability history and movement

No consensus history is available yet for this market.

How will this market be resolved?

Criteria

YES if iPhone net sales in Apple's first official FY2026 Form 10-K are at least 200 billion USD; NO if lower. Convert reported units correctly (200000 million USD equals 200 billion). Use the SEC filing; later amendments do not change settlement. Await a delayed filing until January 31, 2027; void if no FY2026 10-K with a separately identifiable iPhone net-sales figure is available by then.

Official source

https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000320193.json

Timing

Resolution: 1 Nov 2026, 23:00 UTC

Payout rules

Real BIL settlement — closed beta

Real BIL trading, deposits, withdrawals, fees, custody, and external payouts are not active.

These terms describe an inactive protocol rule. They do not indicate payout readiness, protected customer funds, KYC approval, provider readiness, or legal approval.

Only if all required launch controls are verified and real BIL trading is enabled: After a YES or NO result is confirmed, each winning share pays 1 BIL. Losing shares pay 0 BIL.

If this market is cancelled or cannot be resolved, each held YES or NO share pays 0.50 BIL. This payment is based on the shares you hold at settlement. It can be lower than your purchase cost.

Unfilled orders are cancelled when the market closes or is cancelled. Their unused cash and share reserves are released.

Fees paid on completed trades are not refunded.

Bilinium AI analysis Evidence & drivers

CommunityAwaiting data

—

Reliability—

Confidence—

Bilinium AIIndependent model

33%

60% confidence

Top forecastersLimited

—

Not enough eligible forecasters yet.

Signal changeFirst analysis

AI Summary

Given the available evidence, Apple's iPhone revenue for the September 2025 quarter reached a record, contributing significantly to total quarterly revenue of $102.5 billion. However, there is no direct evidence regarding the entire fiscal year 2026 net sales for iPhone reaching $200 billion. Considering the current data and typical revenue seasonality, the probability of achieving $200 billion in net iPhone sales for fiscal year 2026 is currently low to moderate.

YES Drivers

Record iPhone revenue in September 2025 quarter
Apple reported record iPhone revenue in the September quarter contributing substantially to total quarterly revenue, indicating strong recent sales performance.
Weight 30%
SourcesE1E2

NO Drivers

Lack of full fiscal year data
The evidence only covers the September 2025 quarter and does not provide data on the full fiscal year 2026, making a $200 billion forecast for the year uncertain.
Weight 40%
SourcesE1E2

Evidence

Sources (2)

Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results Direction: YES
apple.comOct 30, 2025
Apple reported record iPhone revenue in the September quarter, contributing to a total revenue of $102.5 billion.
Apple Reports 4Q 2025 Results: $27.5B Profit on $102.5B Revenue Direction: YES
macrumors.comOct 30, 2025
Apple's iPhone revenue in the September quarter set a new record, contributing to a total revenue of $102.5 billion.