Will Ethereum end 2026 at $3,000 or higher?
Market probability· BIL· Price unavailable
How it works
The YES reference price is the best bid/ask midpoint when the spread is at most 0.10 BIL. A wider or one-sided book uses the latest recorded YES trade available in the public tape. Without that data, no percentage is shown. NO is the complement in this binary summary. All funding methods use the same BIL order book. This is not your execution price, total BIL distribution or an outcome guarantee.
Participant confidence
About this market
Ethereum's final daily closing price of 2026 on Coinbase, in USD. Photo: Ivan Radic / Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 2.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/. Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Close-up_of_a_physical_Ethereum_coin_(51002904687).jpg. Displayed in a cropped card frame.
Probability history and movement
How will this market be resolved?
Criteria
YES if the close field of Coinbase Exchange ETH-USD's 86400-second candle starting 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC is at least 3000 USD; NO if below. The candle ends 2027-01-01 00:00 UTC. Use the historical candles endpoint, not the current ticker. If unavailable, wait up to January 8, 2027 00:00 UTC; void if no official candle exists by then.
Official source
Timing
Resolution: 1 Jan 2027, 00:10 UTC
Payout rules
Real BIL settlement — closed beta
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Bilinium AI analysis Evidence & drivers
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55%
60% confidence
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Not enough eligible forecasters yet.
AI Summary
Market analysts present a range of forecasts for Ethereum's closing price at the end of 2026 on Coinbase, spanning from slightly above $3,000 to well above $10,000, suggesting potential for a $3,000 or higher close. However, some forecasts project a base case near but below $3,000, indicating uncertainty. Balancing these views yields a moderate probability that Ethereum will close 2026 at $3,000 or higher.
YES Drivers
Analysts projecting Ethereum above $3,000 end of 2026
Multiple analysts have set end-of-2026 price targets for Ethereum ranging from the mid-$3,000s to over $10,000, signaling expectations for strong price appreciation by year-end.
Weight 60%
SourcesE1
NO Drivers
Base case forecasts slightly below $3,000
Some forecasts place Ethereum's price near but below the $3,000 threshold in Q4 2026 (around $2,800 to $3,200 base range), implying a substantial chance that the price might not reach the $3,000 closing mark.
Weight 40%
SourcesE2
Evidence
Sources (2)
- Ethereum Price Prediction 2026: Analyst Targets & Outlook Direction: YESmarketshq.net
Analysts have set Ethereum's end-of-2026 price targets ranging from mid-$3,000s to over $10,000.
- Ethereum Price Prediction 2026: ETH Forecast Direction: NObybit.com
The base case for Ethereum's price by Q4 2026 is $2,800–$3,200, with a bull case of $3,500–$4,000.
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