A fixed publication deadline now limits the waiting period: 2026-10-16T18:05:00Z. If no qualifying official result is published by then, the market must be cancelled (void). / Resmi sonuç için son tarih sabitlendi. Bu tarihe kadar uygun resmi sonuç yayımlanmazsa piyasa iptal edilir.
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Closed·Closes: 16 Sept 2026, 17:55 UTC
Will the Fed leave its target range unchanged at the September 2026 meeting?
Market probability· BIL· Price unavailable
How it works
The YES reference price is the best bid/ask midpoint when the spread is at most 0.10 BIL. A wider or one-sided book uses the latest recorded YES trade available in the public tape. Without that data, no percentage is shown. NO is the complement in this binary summary. All funding methods use the same BIL order book. This is not your execution price, total BIL distribution or an outcome guarantee.
Participant confidence
About this market
A binary market measuring whether the federal funds target range in the September 2026 FOMC decision remains identical to the official range in force immediately before the decision.
Probability history and movement
No consensus history is available yet for this market.
How will this market be resolved?
Criteria
YES: Eylül 2026 FOMC karar metninde açıklanan hedef aralığın alt ve üst bandı, karar öncesi yürürlükteki resmi alt ve üst bant ile birebir aynıysa. NO: Alt bant veya üst banttan en az biri farklıysa. Official source rule: Yalnızca Federal Reserve resmi para politikası açıklamaları ve takvim bağlamı esas alınır. Revision/postponement/cancellation rule: Toplantı veya yayımlama saati resmi olarak ertelenirse resmi yeni yayımlama anı beklenir; karar metni yayımlanmazsa market iptal edilir. Publication deadline: 2026-10-16T18:05:00Z. If the required official result has not been published by this time, cancel (void) the market. Results first published after this deadline do not qualify. This fixed deadline limits any postponement or waiting clause above. The existing result definition, source and correction policy otherwise remain unchanged.
Official source
Timing
Resolution: 16 Sept 2026, 18:05 UTC
Rule updates
Payout rules
Real BIL settlement — closed beta
Real BIL trading, deposits, withdrawals, fees, custody, and external payouts are not active.
These terms describe an inactive protocol rule. They do not indicate payout readiness, protected customer funds, KYC approval, provider readiness, or legal approval.
Only if all required launch controls are verified and real BIL trading is enabled: After a YES or NO result is confirmed, each winning share pays 1 BIL. Losing shares pay 0 BIL.
If this market is cancelled or cannot be resolved, each held YES or NO share pays 0.50 BIL. This payment is based on the shares you hold at settlement. It can be lower than your purchase cost.
Unfilled orders are cancelled when the market closes or is cancelled. Their unused cash and share reserves are released.
Fees paid on completed trades are not refunded.
Bilinium AI analysis Evidence & drivers
CommunityInsufficient data
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Updated
Reliability0%
Confidence0%
Bilinium AIIndependent model
85%
90% confidence
Top forecastersLimited
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Not enough eligible forecasters yet.
Signal changeFirst analysis
AI Summary
Given the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements from June and July 2026 indicating the maintenance of the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, it is highly likely that the target range will remain unchanged in the September 2026 meeting. These consistent official communications support the expectation of no change in the target range at the upcoming FOMC decision.
YES Drivers
Recent FOMC statements maintain target range
The FOMC statements issued in June and July 2026 both confirmed that the federal funds rate target range remains at 3.5% to 3.75%, suggesting policy stability going into September.
Weight 70%
NO Drivers
No explicit no drivers are available yet.
Evidence
Sources (2)
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Direction: YESfederalreserve.gov
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Direction: YESfederalreserve.gov
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.
AI-generatedopenai · gpt-4.1-mini
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