Will December 2026 be at least 1°C above average?
Market probability· BIL· Price unavailable
How it works
The YES reference price is the best bid/ask midpoint when the spread is at most 0.10 BIL. A wider or one-sided book uses the latest recorded YES trade available in the public tape. Without that data, no percentage is shown. NO is the complement in this binary summary. All funding methods use the same BIL order book. This is not your execution price, total BIL distribution or an outcome guarantee.
Participant confidence
About this market
NOAA global land-and-ocean temperature, compared with the 1901–2000 December average. Photo: NASA/NOAA/GSFC/Suomi NPP/VIIRS/Norman Kuring. NASA imagery — public domain. Source: https://www.nasa.gov/image-article/blue-marble-2012/. Displayed in a cropped card frame.
Probability history and movement
How will this market be resolved?
Criteria
YES if NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance first reports a December 2026 global land-and-ocean temperature anomaly of at least +1.00 degrees Celsius relative to the 1901–2000 December average; NO if lower. Use the monthly December value, not an annual or year-to-date value. Later revisions do not change settlement. Await delayed publication until March 1, 2027 00:00 UTC; void if the specified official value is unavailable then.
Timing
Resolution: 13 Jan 2027, 18:00 UTC
Payout rules
Real BIL settlement — closed beta
Real BIL trading, deposits, withdrawals, fees, custody, and external payouts are not active.
These terms describe an inactive protocol rule. They do not indicate payout readiness, protected customer funds, KYC approval, provider readiness, or legal approval.
Only if all required launch controls are verified and real BIL trading is enabled: After a YES or NO result is confirmed, each winning share pays 1 BIL. Losing shares pay 0 BIL.
If this market is cancelled or cannot be resolved, each held YES or NO share pays 0.50 BIL. This payment is based on the shares you hold at settlement. It can be lower than your purchase cost.
Unfilled orders are cancelled when the market closes or is cancelled. Their unused cash and share reserves are released.
Fees paid on completed trades are not refunded.
Bilinium AI analysis Evidence & drivers
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75%
70% confidence
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Not enough eligible forecasters yet.
AI Summary
Based on NOAA's historical global temperature data and recent mid-2026 monthly analyses, December 2026 is likely to be at least 1°C above the 1901–2000 average. Multiple recent months, including February and April 2026, registered as some of the warmest on record globally, indicating a sustained warming trend consistent with surpassing the 1°C anomaly threshold this December.
YES Drivers
Consistent Above-Average Temperatures in Early 2026
NOAA reports show that February and April 2026 were both among the warmest months on record globally, reflecting a continued pattern of high temperatures across global land and ocean surfaces in 2026 (E2, E3, E4, E5).
Weight 50%
NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset Reliability
NOAA's NOAAGlobalTemp dataset is an authoritative source that provides monthly updated global land and ocean temperature anomalies from 1850 to present, offering a solid foundation for climate anomaly projections (E1).
Weight 25%
SourcesE1
NO Drivers
No explicit no drivers are available yet.
Evidence
Sources (5)
- NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp), Version 6.1 Direction: Neutralncei.noaa.gov
NOAA's NOAAGlobalTemp dataset provides global land and ocean temperature anomalies from 1850 to the present, updated monthly.
- Assessing the Global Temperature and Precipitation Analysis in February 2026 Direction: Neutralncei.noaa.gov
February 2026 marked the 47th consecutive February with an above-average global temperature, with above-average temperatures observed across much of the global land and ocean surfaces.
- Assessing the Global Temperature and Precipitation Analysis in April 2026 Direction: Neutralncei.noaa.gov
April 2026 experienced above-average temperatures across most global land and ocean surfaces, with notable temperature departures observed in various regions.
- Assessing the Global Temperature and Precipitation Analysis in February 2026 Direction: Neutralncei.noaa.gov
February 2026 was the second-warmest February on record, with above-average temperatures observed across much of the global land and ocean surfaces.
- Assessing the Global Temperature and Precipitation Analysis in April 2026 Direction: Neutralncei.noaa.gov
April 2026 was the second-warmest April on record, with above-average temperatures observed across most global land and ocean surfaces.
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