A fixed publication deadline now limits the waiting period: 2026-10-10T11:05:00Z. If no qualifying official result is published by then, the market must be cancelled (void). / Resmi sonuç için son tarih sabitlendi. Bu tarihe kadar uygun resmi sonuç yayımlanmazsa piyasa iptal edilir.
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Closed·Closes: 9 Sept 2026, 20:59 UTC
Will Türkiye cut interest rates in September?
Market probability· BIL· Price unavailable
How it works
The YES reference price is the best bid/ask midpoint when the spread is at most 0.10 BIL. A wider or one-sided book uses the latest recorded YES trade available in the public tape. Without that data, no percentage is shown. NO is the complement in this binary summary. All funding methods use the same BIL order book. This is not your execution price, total BIL distribution or an outcome guarantee.
Participant confidence
About this market
The September 10, 2026 CBRT decision on the one-week repo rate. Photo: Hello40339 / Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/. Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Central_Bank_of_The_Repubilc_of_Turkey_Tower.jpg. Displayed in a cropped card frame.
Probability history and movement
No consensus history is available yet for this market.
How will this market be resolved?
Criteria
YES if the one-week repo auction rate announced in the scheduled September 2026 CBRT decision is below the official rate immediately before that decision. NO if unchanged or higher. Use the first official decision, not commentary. A postponed decision is awaited; cancellation without a replacement decision voids the market. Publication deadline: 2026-10-10T11:05:00Z. If the required official result has not been published by this time, cancel (void) the market. Results first published after this deadline do not qualify. This fixed deadline limits any postponement or waiting clause above. The existing result definition, source and correction policy otherwise remain unchanged.
Official source
https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Announcements/Press+Releases
Timing
Resolution: 10 Sept 2026, 11:05 UTC
Rule updates
Payout rules
Real BIL settlement — closed beta
Real BIL trading, deposits, withdrawals, fees, custody, and external payouts are not active.
These terms describe an inactive protocol rule. They do not indicate payout readiness, protected customer funds, KYC approval, provider readiness, or legal approval.
Only if all required launch controls are verified and real BIL trading is enabled: After a YES or NO result is confirmed, each winning share pays 1 BIL. Losing shares pay 0 BIL.
If this market is cancelled or cannot be resolved, each held YES or NO share pays 0.50 BIL. This payment is based on the shares you hold at settlement. It can be lower than your purchase cost.
Unfilled orders are cancelled when the market closes or is cancelled. Their unused cash and share reserves are released.
Fees paid on completed trades are not refunded.
Bilinium AI analysis Evidence & drivers
CommunityAwaiting data
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Reliability—
Confidence—
Bilinium AIIndependent model
15%
60% confidence
Top forecastersLimited
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Not enough eligible forecasters yet.
Signal changeFirst analysis
AI Summary
Given the available information, it is unlikely that Türkiye will cut interest rates in the September 10, 2026 CBRT meeting. The last known one-week repo rate is 37.00% set on July 23, 2026. There is no current evidence indicating an impending rate cut, and the market seems stable with no signals supporting a rate decrease at this point.
YES Drivers
No explicit yes drivers are available yet.
NO Drivers
No Recent Signals of Rate Cut
The last one-week repo rate was set at a high 37.00% in late July 2026 with no new data suggesting a reduction is imminent.
Weight 60%
Scheduled Meeting Without Rate Indication
The CBRT meeting is scheduled for September 10, 2026, but there is no published indication or commentary suggesting a rate cut.
Weight 40%
SourcesE1
Evidence
Sources (5)
- CBRT Meeting Dates 2026–2027: Next CBRT Decision | Econ Calendar Direction: Neutralecon-calendar.com
The next CBRT policy-rate decision is scheduled for September 10, 2026 at 2:00 PM Türkiye Time.
- Turkey One-Week Repo Rate Direction: Neutraluk.investing.com
The one-week repo rate was last set at 37.00% on July 23, 2026.
- Turkey One-Week Repo Rate Direction: Neutralca.investing.com
The one-week repo rate was last set at 37.00% on July 23, 2026.
- Turkey One-Week Repo Rate Direction: Neutralza.investing.com
The one-week repo rate was last set at 37.00% on July 23, 2026.
- Turkey One-Week Repo Rate Direction: Neutralng.investing.com
The one-week repo rate was last set at 37.00% on July 23, 2026.
AI-generatedopenai · gpt-4.1-mini
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