A fixed publication deadline now limits the waiting period: 2026-10-11T12:35:00Z. If no qualifying official result is published by then, the market must be cancelled (void). / Resmi sonuç için son tarih sabitlendi. Bu tarihe kadar uygun resmi sonuç yayımlanmazsa piyasa iptal edilir.
0 followers
Closed·Closes: 11 Sept 2026, 12:25 UTC
Will U.S. August 2026 CPI rise by 0.3% or more month-over-month (SA)?
Market probability· BIL· Price unavailable
How it works
The YES reference price is the best bid/ask midpoint when the spread is at most 0.10 BIL. A wider or one-sided book uses the latest recorded YES trade available in the public tape. Without that data, no percentage is shown. NO is the complement in this binary summary. All funding methods use the same BIL order book. This is not your execution price, total BIL distribution or an outcome guarantee.
Participant confidence
About this market
A binary market measuring the August 2026 CPI-U All Items seasonally adjusted monthly change published by BLS against a threshold of 0.3 percent.
Probability history and movement
No consensus history is available yet for this market.
Why did this move?
- Community
Sep 1, 2026 · 02:08 UTC
Signal changed
Community consensus moved from 75% to 70%.
-5 pp
down
How will this market be resolved?
Criteria
YES: BLS CPI yayımlamasında Ağustos 2026 için ilk açıklanan mevsimsel düzeltilmiş aylık değişim yüzde 0,3 veya üzerindeyse. NO: İlk açıklanan değer yüzde 0,3'ün altındaysa. Official source rule: BLS resmi CPI haber bülteni kullanılır. Revision/postponement/cancellation rule: Sonraki revizyonlar settlement için dikkate alınmaz; resmi yayımlama ertelenirse ilk resmi yayımlama beklenir; yayımlama yapılmazsa market iptal edilir. Publication deadline: 2026-10-11T12:35:00Z. If the required official result has not been published by this time, cancel (void) the market. Results first published after this deadline do not qualify. This fixed deadline limits any postponement or waiting clause above. The existing result definition, source and correction policy otherwise remain unchanged.
Official source
Timing
Resolution: 11 Sept 2026, 12:35 UTC
Rule updates
Payout rules
Real BIL settlement — closed beta
Real BIL trading, deposits, withdrawals, fees, custody, and external payouts are not active.
These terms describe an inactive protocol rule. They do not indicate payout readiness, protected customer funds, KYC approval, provider readiness, or legal approval.
Only if all required launch controls are verified and real BIL trading is enabled: After a YES or NO result is confirmed, each winning share pays 1 BIL. Losing shares pay 0 BIL.
If this market is cancelled or cannot be resolved, each held YES or NO share pays 0.50 BIL. This payment is based on the shares you hold at settlement. It can be lower than your purchase cost.
Unfilled orders are cancelled when the market closes or is cancelled. Their unused cash and share reserves are released.
Fees paid on completed trades are not refunded.
Bilinium AI analysis Evidence & drivers
CommunityInsufficient data
70%
Updated
Reliability76%
Confidence0%
Bilinium AIAwaiting analysis
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Top forecastersLimited
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Not enough eligible forecasters yet.
Analysis is not available yet.
Community reasoning
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