A fixed publication deadline now limits the waiting period: 2027-02-02T18:00:00Z. If no qualifying official result is published by then, the market must be cancelled (void). / Resmi sonuç için son tarih sabitlendi. Bu tarihe kadar uygun resmi sonuç yayımlanmazsa piyasa iptal edilir.
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Open·Closes: 2 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
Will Democrats hold a House majority in January 2027?
Market probability· BIL· Price unavailable
How it works
The YES reference price is the best bid/ask midpoint when the spread is at most 0.10 BIL. A wider or one-sided book uses the latest recorded YES trade available in the public tape. Without that data, no percentage is shown. NO is the complement in this binary summary. All funding methods use the same BIL order book. This is not your execution price, total BIL distribution or an outcome guarantee.
Participant confidence
About this market
Democratic voting membership at the opening of the 120th US Congress. Photo: Architect of the Capitol / Wikimedia Commons. Public domain (US federal government). Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:United_States_Capitol_-_west_front.jpg. Displayed in a cropped card frame.
Probability history and movement
No consensus history is available yet for this market.
How will this market be resolved?
Criteria
YES if, at the opening of the 120th Congress, Democrats hold more than half of all seated voting House memberships recorded by the Clerk of the House. NO otherwise, including a tie. Independents count in the total but not as Democrats; exclude vacancies and non-voting delegates. Use official opening membership records, not projections. Await opening if delayed; void if an official opening roster cannot be established. Publication deadline: 2027-02-02T18:00:00Z. If the required official result has not been published by this time, cancel (void) the market. Results first published after this deadline do not qualify. This fixed deadline limits any postponement or waiting clause above. The existing result definition, source and correction policy otherwise remain unchanged.
Official source
Timing
Resolution: 3 Jan 2027, 18:00 UTC
Rule updates
Payout rules
Real BIL settlement — closed beta
Real BIL trading, deposits, withdrawals, fees, custody, and external payouts are not active.
These terms describe an inactive protocol rule. They do not indicate payout readiness, protected customer funds, KYC approval, provider readiness, or legal approval.
Only if all required launch controls are verified and real BIL trading is enabled: After a YES or NO result is confirmed, each winning share pays 1 BIL. Losing shares pay 0 BIL.
If this market is cancelled or cannot be resolved, each held YES or NO share pays 0.50 BIL. This payment is based on the shares you hold at settlement. It can be lower than your purchase cost.
Unfilled orders are cancelled when the market closes or is cancelled. Their unused cash and share reserves are released.
Fees paid on completed trades are not refunded.
Bilinium AI analysis Evidence & drivers
CommunityAwaiting data
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Reliability—
Confidence—
Bilinium AIIndependent model
52%
15% confidence
Top forecastersLimited
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Not enough eligible forecasters yet.
Signal changeFirst analysis
AI Summary
Based on current official evidence as of August 2026, Democrats hold a near-even number of House seats with a slight edge anticipated but no definitive majority indicated. Official quorum and representative profiles show a close partisan composition with 202 Democrats and 204 Republicans present in early January 2026, alongside individual district representatives identified by party, suggesting a nearly balanced chamber going into the next Congress.
YES Drivers
Current near parity in House membership
The January 6, 2026 quorum recorded 202 Democrats and 204 Republicans present, indicating a nearly even split that could swing to a Democratic majority depending on future elections or special circumstances.
Weight 40%
SourcesE1Confirmed Democratic representatives in August 2026
Profiles of Democratic members Gabe Amo, Rick Larsen, and Eric Sorensen as of August 2026 confirm active Democratic seats potentially contributing to a majority.
Weight 20%
NO Drivers
Slight Republican seat advantage in recent quorum
The recorded quorum on January 6, 2026 included 204 Republicans versus 202 Democrats, indicating a current Republican advantage.
Weight 30%
SourcesE1Presence of Republican representatives as of August 2026
Michael Lawler's profile illustrates that Republicans hold seats actively as of August 2026, contributing to their parity or advantage.
Weight 10%
SourcesE4
Evidence
Sources (5)
- Roll Call 1 | QUORUM on January 6, 2026 Direction: Neutralclerk.house.gov
On January 6, 2026, the Clerk of the House records a quorum call with 406 members present and 24 not voting, including 204 Republicans and 202 Democrats.
- Gabe Amo's Profile as of August 2026 Direction: Neutralclerk.house.gov
As of August 2026, Gabe Amo, a Democrat from Rhode Island's 1st district, serves in the House of Representatives.
- Rick Larsen's Profile as of August 2026 Direction: Neutralclerk.house.gov
As of August 2026, Rick Larsen, a Democrat from Washington's 2nd district, serves in the House of Representatives.
- Michael Lawler's Profile as of August 2026 Direction: Neutralclerk.house.gov
As of August 2026, Michael Lawler, a Republican from New York's 17th district, serves in the House of Representatives.
- Eric Sorensen's Profile as of August 2026 Direction: Neutralclerk.house.gov
As of August 2026, Eric Sorensen, a Democrat from Illinois's 17th district, serves in the House of Representatives.
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