Will U.S. August 2026 nonfarm payrolls increase by at least 150,000?
Market probability· BIL· Price unavailable
How it works
The YES reference price is the best bid/ask midpoint when the spread is at most 0.10 BIL. A wider or one-sided book uses the latest recorded YES trade available in the public tape. Without that data, no percentage is shown. NO is the complement in this binary summary. All funding methods use the same BIL order book. This is not your execution price, total BIL distribution or an outcome guarantee.
Participant confidence
About this market
A binary market measuring whether the first reported August 2026 monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment in the BLS Employment Situation is at least 150,000.
Probability history and movement
How will this market be resolved?
Criteria
YES if the first official U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics “The Employment Situation — August 2026” release reports a seasonally adjusted monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment of +150,000 or more, including exactly +150,000. NO if the value in that first official release is below +150,000. The sign matters: +150,000 means YES; -150,000 means NO. Only the first official release counts. Later revisions, corrections and benchmark updates do not change the outcome. “150,000”, “150 thousand” and “150k” mean the same numerical value. If the official release is delayed, wait until it becomes available. If the data is permanently not published, withdrawn or cannot be unambiguously determined, cancel the market.
Official source
Timing
Resolution: 4 Sept 2026, 12:35 UTC
Payout rules
Real BIL settlement — closed beta
Real BIL trading, deposits, withdrawals, fees, custody, and external payouts are not active.
These terms describe an inactive protocol rule. They do not indicate payout readiness, protected customer funds, KYC approval, provider readiness, or legal approval.
Only if all required launch controls are verified and real BIL trading is enabled: After a YES or NO result is confirmed, each winning share pays 1 BIL. Losing shares pay 0 BIL.
If this market is cancelled or cannot be resolved, each held YES or NO share pays 0.50 BIL. This payment is based on the shares you hold at settlement. It can be lower than your purchase cost.
Unfilled orders are cancelled when the market closes or is cancelled. Their unused cash and share reserves are released.
Fees paid on completed trades are not refunded.
Bilinium AI analysis Evidence & drivers
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